Saturday night saw the Senators respond well (except for the first twenty minutes) to a long layoff and the Rockies respond poorly to a change of scenery. The Senators continue to provide precious little by way of story lines, winning a game and then quietly preparing to win another. Remarkably, however, the first two days of the baseball off-season have been far more dramatic than the World Series was. Alex Rodriguez has opted out of the Yankees and those same pinstripers have hired Joe Girardi (and his one year of managerial experience to guide them into next season). Other questions swirl around the Yankees with major contributors Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Petite in limbo with regards to next season.
The questions surrounding Rodriguez are multiple and intriguing. Clearly, the best hitter in baseball right now; he is also a strong fielder and excellent baserunner: the total package. His recent postseason statistics, however, raise questions about his ability to hit in the clutch, though his career playoff numbers are decent by anyone else's standards and he did hit a remarkable .475 in the ninth inning this season. The money that he is looking for immediately diminishes the field of contenders for his services and two of the most interesting scenarios involve him moving back to play shortstop (with either the Cubs or the Red Sox) and hitting in the middle of already potent lineups. The other two obvious possibilities are the two LA teams. The Dodgers rumoured pursuit of Joe Torre may remove them from the running but the Angels could be very tempted by the possibility of a one-two punch of Vladimir Guerrero and A-Rod that would probably be even more intimidating than the Ortiz-Ramirez duo in Boston. In that scenario you probably get the most out of your investment, adding both Rodriguez' production and likely bolstering Guerrero's by forcing teams to pitch to him to avoid A-Rod. How this plays out will be very interesting.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Time Off
The Senators return from a week long hiatus, hoping to not suffer from the rust that clearly affected the Colorado Rockies in Game One of the World Series. The Sens have decided to go back to Martin Gerber and are hoping that time off doesn't break their momentum. The Devils hope the new home ice will be kinder to them than their nine road games have been.
The Rockies are also counting on a change of scenery resulting in a change of outcome. Returning to Denver after dropping the first two games in Boston, Colorado hopes to rebound and take advantage of the home field to awake their slumbering offense. The Red Sox have decided to put David Ortiz at first and leave Kevin Youkilis on the bench and the lineup tinkering could also favour the Rockies.
We'll see tomorrow how these things have played out.
The Rockies are also counting on a change of scenery resulting in a change of outcome. Returning to Denver after dropping the first two games in Boston, Colorado hopes to rebound and take advantage of the home field to awake their slumbering offense. The Red Sox have decided to put David Ortiz at first and leave Kevin Youkilis on the bench and the lineup tinkering could also favour the Rockies.
We'll see tomorrow how these things have played out.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
World Series Starts Now (and Hopefully ends before November)
I find myself somewhat less interested in this year's World Series and I'm not really sure why. I have no particular rooting interest, but that is often the case, and I do think that both sides present interesting storylines and personalities. The Rockies offer us an upstart team on a big roll. They are almost too archetypal as underdogs. They have a skinny Canadian on the mound, a rookie shortstop who grew up idolizing Derek Jeter and a young slugger who emerged to have an MVP-calibre season. On the other side, are the big dog Red Sox who have Josh Beckett doing his best to fully assume the mantle of this generation's Roger Clemens and two big-time clutch hitters in Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. The Sox have clawed back into the Series after a brief two-year absence. The Rockies have arrived at this point for the first time.
All this should add up to excitement but somehow, especially with the Rockies having not played in a week, it seems like a bit of a letdown. Most opinions that I've heard, seem to feel the Red Sox just need to show up. The big bats will find a way to plate runs, Beckett seems to be considered automatic and that means the Sox only need two (or maybe even one) other strong performance out of a starter. The layoff may have had a negative effect on the Rockies mojo and no one will think of ill of them for losing. For the sake of an exciting Series, it would be great if the Rockies could show up tonight and find a way to snatch a win away from Beckett. Winning one of the first two would make the shift to Colorado much more interesting. The Red Sox will have some decisions to make for the games in Colorado in order to keep David Ortiz in their lineup. The potential loss of Kevin Youkilis or Mike Lowell or outside chance JD Drew hurts the team a little offensively but hurts the team a lot defensively. The suggestion that Youkilis would shift to third and Lowell would sit, leaves the Sox with two inexperienced and inadequate fielders at the corners against a team with a lineup full of guys who hustle and a leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras, who recorded a startling number of infield hits this year along with his 33 stolen bases in just 97 games. Despite all this, it just feels like the Red Sox will find a way to get the job done. By morning, we'll probably have an idea of which way this is turning.
All this should add up to excitement but somehow, especially with the Rockies having not played in a week, it seems like a bit of a letdown. Most opinions that I've heard, seem to feel the Red Sox just need to show up. The big bats will find a way to plate runs, Beckett seems to be considered automatic and that means the Sox only need two (or maybe even one) other strong performance out of a starter. The layoff may have had a negative effect on the Rockies mojo and no one will think of ill of them for losing. For the sake of an exciting Series, it would be great if the Rockies could show up tonight and find a way to snatch a win away from Beckett. Winning one of the first two would make the shift to Colorado much more interesting. The Red Sox will have some decisions to make for the games in Colorado in order to keep David Ortiz in their lineup. The potential loss of Kevin Youkilis or Mike Lowell or outside chance JD Drew hurts the team a little offensively but hurts the team a lot defensively. The suggestion that Youkilis would shift to third and Lowell would sit, leaves the Sox with two inexperienced and inadequate fielders at the corners against a team with a lineup full of guys who hustle and a leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras, who recorded a startling number of infield hits this year along with his 33 stolen bases in just 97 games. Despite all this, it just feels like the Red Sox will find a way to get the job done. By morning, we'll probably have an idea of which way this is turning.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Newcomers
The Senators welcome Randy Robitaille to the fold tonight as he will make his debut against the Montreal Canadiens. An interesting depth addition, Robitaille is another hometown boy that GM Bryan Murray has brought in since taking charge. Robitaille is no stranger to being the newcomer in an NHL dressing room which means two things: he's good enough that people want to bring him but he's not so good that teams do not want to let him go. A player with some skill and offensive flair who has never been able to find a niche in the NHL. The intention seems to be to start him tonight on the fourth line, between Shean Donovan and Cristoph Schubert with the possibility of augmenting his ice time with some powerplay minutes. At this stage, he seems to be a depth player, possibly allowing them to send Nick Foligno to the AHL for some good minutes and a confidence boost and giving them a proven NHL player to slide into different spots in the lineup in the event of injuries. I don't imagine this ends Murray's search for a top-six forward but it certainly allows him to take his time and find the right fit. The signing has little downside and the potential upside of Robitaille finding a groove and producing something in line with his talent while surrounded with the good examples in the Senators' lineup and the comforts of home. We'll see tonight how he steps for the first time on this road.
Monday, October 15, 2007
The Week That Was
The NHL season is starting to develop to the point where evaluation of where teams stand can begin, though the unevenness of scheduling means that as of this writing some teams have played as many as seven games and others as few as four. That will even out and the standings will normalize in the next couple weeks and I will probably wait until then to start looking back at season opening predictions. I think ten games of evidence is the minimum needed to determine breakthroughs as opposed to aberrations.
The Colorado Rockies won again last night, a feet that extends their remarkable run to 20 wins in 21 games, including six straight playoff games and the one game playoff to get take the wildcard spot away from San Diego. They have been doing by committee also, getting big hits from up and down their lineup and strong pitching no matter who they send to the mound. This could be the makings of historical run if they can continue to be hot for another series after closing out the Diamondbacks. I think their biggest worry, however, could be a lengthy layoff should the Indians and Red Sox series go six or seven games. It will be interesting to see if a break in the routine causes a young team that has just played the same way every night for the past month to start to think too much about what they are trying to accomplish.
The other great drama in baseball isn't the ALCS but the off-field questions surrounding the New York Yankees who have seen George Steinbrenner handing over control of the team in the midst of an oddly public evaluation of Joe Torre's position with the club. Overlooking the question of why Brian Cashman's job as general manager is safe, despite the fact that it was noted all year that the Yankee's weakness was pitching and he did nothing to address it, there are any number of cautionary tales for the Yankees to look to before firing Torre for the sake of change. Torre is almost universally acknowledged as being an excellent manager and while the seventh consecutive playoff failure should not be overlooked, it only makes sense to fire him if you can replace him with another excellent manager. There has been some debate as to who that might be and it seems the Yankees are doing their due diligence in delaying any announcements but the troubled start of the San Diego Chargers should give them just a little more pause. Having already lost more games than they did last year, the Chargers knee jerk reaction to a playoff loss may have cost them the chance to host the almost inevitable playoff matchup with New England or Indianapolis (assuming they turn things around and make the playoffs as they seem to be doing). Time will tell if they made the right choice but certainly the prospects are not terribly enticing.
The other interesting topic is the suspension of Jesse Boulerice for crosschecking Ryan Kesler in the face. While I think that the 25 game punishment was not as severe as I would have liked, it is a long suspension and debating games with the NHL could be incredibly frustrating. What seems to me more interesting is the question of punishing the team. It has been pointed out that this is not on the radar for the NHL governors but perhaps it is a topic that warrants legitimate debate. The fact that the incident involved a member of the Flyers and that they now have two players serving 20 plus game suspensions simultaneously certainly raises questions about the culture of that organization when it comes to violent play. Much has been made of the way the Anaheim Ducks bullied their way to the Stanley Cup last year and how teams are trying to toughen up to follow that model. There is little doubt that the Ducks toughness is an organizational culture that extends from the GM's office all the way down to the fourth line players and depth defensemen. So the question should be asked, if the Flyers really felt that Steve Downie's actions that led to the first suspension were unacceptable would Jesse Boulerice have felt comfortable enough on the team to cross the line he crossed. Would punishing the team encourage more internal discipline? It is hard to say. Is it reasonable to punish the team for an individual's actions? Possibly. The biggest obstacle that I see to that is the current unpredictability of NHL discipline. Without set punishments for certain crimes, it seems that uneven punishment of the teams is compounding the existing unfairness of uneven punishment for the players. It might, however, encourage teams to consider the type of players that they us on the fourth line and we might see more opportunities for players who have some skill but lack a certain something to stick fulltime in the league. If teams are worried about the costs of so-called energy players who they don't expect to score, they me be more willing to give a skill guy the chance to fight for ice time and have an extra opportunity to prove that he can produce in the NHL and it never hurts the league to have more skilled players on rosters.
The Colorado Rockies won again last night, a feet that extends their remarkable run to 20 wins in 21 games, including six straight playoff games and the one game playoff to get take the wildcard spot away from San Diego. They have been doing by committee also, getting big hits from up and down their lineup and strong pitching no matter who they send to the mound. This could be the makings of historical run if they can continue to be hot for another series after closing out the Diamondbacks. I think their biggest worry, however, could be a lengthy layoff should the Indians and Red Sox series go six or seven games. It will be interesting to see if a break in the routine causes a young team that has just played the same way every night for the past month to start to think too much about what they are trying to accomplish.
The other great drama in baseball isn't the ALCS but the off-field questions surrounding the New York Yankees who have seen George Steinbrenner handing over control of the team in the midst of an oddly public evaluation of Joe Torre's position with the club. Overlooking the question of why Brian Cashman's job as general manager is safe, despite the fact that it was noted all year that the Yankee's weakness was pitching and he did nothing to address it, there are any number of cautionary tales for the Yankees to look to before firing Torre for the sake of change. Torre is almost universally acknowledged as being an excellent manager and while the seventh consecutive playoff failure should not be overlooked, it only makes sense to fire him if you can replace him with another excellent manager. There has been some debate as to who that might be and it seems the Yankees are doing their due diligence in delaying any announcements but the troubled start of the San Diego Chargers should give them just a little more pause. Having already lost more games than they did last year, the Chargers knee jerk reaction to a playoff loss may have cost them the chance to host the almost inevitable playoff matchup with New England or Indianapolis (assuming they turn things around and make the playoffs as they seem to be doing). Time will tell if they made the right choice but certainly the prospects are not terribly enticing.
The other interesting topic is the suspension of Jesse Boulerice for crosschecking Ryan Kesler in the face. While I think that the 25 game punishment was not as severe as I would have liked, it is a long suspension and debating games with the NHL could be incredibly frustrating. What seems to me more interesting is the question of punishing the team. It has been pointed out that this is not on the radar for the NHL governors but perhaps it is a topic that warrants legitimate debate. The fact that the incident involved a member of the Flyers and that they now have two players serving 20 plus game suspensions simultaneously certainly raises questions about the culture of that organization when it comes to violent play. Much has been made of the way the Anaheim Ducks bullied their way to the Stanley Cup last year and how teams are trying to toughen up to follow that model. There is little doubt that the Ducks toughness is an organizational culture that extends from the GM's office all the way down to the fourth line players and depth defensemen. So the question should be asked, if the Flyers really felt that Steve Downie's actions that led to the first suspension were unacceptable would Jesse Boulerice have felt comfortable enough on the team to cross the line he crossed. Would punishing the team encourage more internal discipline? It is hard to say. Is it reasonable to punish the team for an individual's actions? Possibly. The biggest obstacle that I see to that is the current unpredictability of NHL discipline. Without set punishments for certain crimes, it seems that uneven punishment of the teams is compounding the existing unfairness of uneven punishment for the players. It might, however, encourage teams to consider the type of players that they us on the fourth line and we might see more opportunities for players who have some skill but lack a certain something to stick fulltime in the league. If teams are worried about the costs of so-called energy players who they don't expect to score, they me be more willing to give a skill guy the chance to fight for ice time and have an extra opportunity to prove that he can produce in the NHL and it never hurts the league to have more skilled players on rosters.
Monday, October 8, 2007
What's Black and White and Red All Over
Attended my first Sens' game of the season this afternoon and watched them methodically post win number four over the New Jersey Devils. Spezza played his best game of the season so far, collecting three assists and Alfredsson also put up three points. The team is starting to round into form a bit as the other lines created some quality scoring chances and forced Martin Brodeur to play very well to keep his team close. The power play scored once but had several excellent chances and with one exception looked more threatening than it has in the first three games of the season. The lack of secondary scoring may become worrying but for the time being, it doesn't seem to be causing any trouble at all.
This week, I also saw the film Zodiac which I was very impressed with. Methodically constructing the environment and attitudes of the various seekers pursuing San Fransisco's famous serial killer. The film is engaging and compelling, told with enough visual flair to keep the audience interested without overwhelming the story and detracting from the realism of a based-on-a-true-story tale. It is the sort of film that leaves you with questions about both the veracity of the specific events as well as piquing the audience's interest in the era and the psychology of the various individuals who may have been the taunting killer. Interestingly, despite the distance of almost forty years, the fact that the truth remains uncertain makes the case somehow more chilling than even more recent sprees that ended in resolution. There is something unsettling for people in a mystery that doesn't reveal itself, which is probably why the case remained such an open wound for those involved in it.
I suppose that is the difference between art and entertainment. The film is artistically satisfying because it leaves the audience with questions and pushes you into discussions and debate about it afterwards. But a sporting event provides excellent entertainment only because it never ends with to be continued . . .
This week, I also saw the film Zodiac which I was very impressed with. Methodically constructing the environment and attitudes of the various seekers pursuing San Fransisco's famous serial killer. The film is engaging and compelling, told with enough visual flair to keep the audience interested without overwhelming the story and detracting from the realism of a based-on-a-true-story tale. It is the sort of film that leaves you with questions about both the veracity of the specific events as well as piquing the audience's interest in the era and the psychology of the various individuals who may have been the taunting killer. Interestingly, despite the distance of almost forty years, the fact that the truth remains uncertain makes the case somehow more chilling than even more recent sprees that ended in resolution. There is something unsettling for people in a mystery that doesn't reveal itself, which is probably why the case remained such an open wound for those involved in it.
I suppose that is the difference between art and entertainment. The film is artistically satisfying because it leaves the audience with questions and pushes you into discussions and debate about it afterwards. But a sporting event provides excellent entertainment only because it never ends with to be continued . . .
Friday, October 5, 2007
A Good Start, Sort of
The Sens have earned their first two wins of the season but should be capable of playing at a much higher level. They managed to squeeze out two victories mostly on the talent of their top trio and some pretty good goaltending by Martin Gerber. With the Rangers coming into Scotiabank Place on Saturday, the team is going to have to pull together much more. The odd thing about the two games against the Leafs was that individually most of the players looked okay but as a team they seemed out of sync. The normally crisp passes were just a little bit off and, especially in game two, there was a reluctance to take the shot that was there. The penalty killing was generally excellent with Phillips and Volchenkov picking up right where they left off. Also notable was Antoine Vermette who looks not only as fast as ever but also much stronger on the boards and in front of the net. If he can become a really forceful player that will stand the team in good stead. It does, however, remain to be seen how long John Paddock can maintain the Spezza, Heatley, Alfredsson unit if the rest of lineup fails to produce more than one goal in two games (their tally so far).
Elsewhere in the league, Paul Stastny had a monster opening night for the Avalanche. Unheralded last year because of the Evgeni Malkin hype, Stastny was probably a more complete player and may in the long run prove to be better, especially with the model of Joe Sakic to pattern himself on. His continued success will be a big key to making the Avalanche troublesome to all they play. New Jersey started the Brent Sutter area on the wrong foot, getting beaten by Lecavalier and St.Louis and the rest of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Niklas Backstrom started the season with a shutout as if to say "I'm for real," to anybody who doubted. And Daniel Briere started off on the right foot with the Flyers, potting two goals in game one.
The MLB playoffs are proving that the National League West is much better than the other two divisions and that you have to be able to pitch and hit to win in October, which doesn't bode well for either the Yankees or the Angels. It has, however, only been one game in the AL and it is always too early to write off the Yankees.
Elsewhere in the league, Paul Stastny had a monster opening night for the Avalanche. Unheralded last year because of the Evgeni Malkin hype, Stastny was probably a more complete player and may in the long run prove to be better, especially with the model of Joe Sakic to pattern himself on. His continued success will be a big key to making the Avalanche troublesome to all they play. New Jersey started the Brent Sutter area on the wrong foot, getting beaten by Lecavalier and St.Louis and the rest of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Niklas Backstrom started the season with a shutout as if to say "I'm for real," to anybody who doubted. And Daniel Briere started off on the right foot with the Flyers, potting two goals in game one.
The MLB playoffs are proving that the National League West is much better than the other two divisions and that you have to be able to pitch and hit to win in October, which doesn't bode well for either the Yankees or the Angels. It has, however, only been one game in the AL and it is always too early to write off the Yankees.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
NHL Season Preview
Here is a breakdown of what I see happening in the upcoming NHL season. All predictions are based on some guess work and the assumption that the roster that finishes the season will be much like the one that started the season. In some cases this will obviously not be the case but trades and injuries are just about impossible to predict. I'll give a guess at the standings followed by team by team captions.
EAST WEST
1. Ottawa 1. Detroit
2. New York Rangers 2. San Jose
3. Carolina 3. Colorado
4. Buffalo 4. Anaheim
5. Pittsburgh 5. Minnesota
6. Florida 6. Calgary
7. New Jersey 7. Vancouver
8. Toronto 8. St. Louis
9. Philadelphia 9. Nashville
10. Tampa Bay 10. Dallas
11. Washington 11. Edmonton
12. Montreal 12. Los Angeles
13. Atlanta 13. Chicago
14. Boston 14. Columbus
15. New York Islanders 15. Phoenix
EAST
Atlanta: Their offense is powered by the dynamic duo of Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk and they have a decent top four defense group that includes the underrated Niclas Havelid and Garnet Exelby. They lack depth at either position though and are again without a proven offensive center since the departure of Marc Savard. There is some intriguing offensive potential in prospects Brett Sterling and Bryan Little but lingering questions about goaltender Kari Lehtonen compounded by last years playoff debacle leave Bob Hartley vulnerable and seeming to have run out of ideas.
Boston: Solidified the goaltending situation with the addition of Manny Fernandez, leaving Tim Thomas as a strong backup. Marc Savard quietly piled up points last year and Zdeno Chara, though he is starting the season hurt, has the capacity to be a difference maker on defense. Behind those two stars the supporting cast and depth is questionable and doesn't seem to have much potential to surprise. The one potential bright spot for the Bruins is the potential demonstrated by Phil Kessel at points last year. He has the potential to combine with Patrice Bergeron and take some of the pressure off Savard.
Buffalo: Despite free agent losses Buffalo still boasts impressive depth at forward, a top notch goaltender in Ryan Miller and the same solid defense core, though they will start the season without Teppo Numminen. They don't have a real number one stud on defense despite the strong play of both Henrik Tallinder and Brian Campbell. The question will be if Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy can step up and continue to play even better and whether Tim Connolly can finally play an entire season and approach the potential he has always shown.
Carolina: Like Buffalo, the Hurricanes boast probably the best top nine forward group in the league and a returning defense unit that is reliable. They are counting on Cam Ward to have a bounce back year (along with some of their forwards) but they lack offense from the defensemen and are without a strong backup if Cam Ward again falters. The question, since the lineup has changed only a little from two years ago, is which team is the true representation of the roster. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle but they play in a weak division.
Florida: Thomas Vokoun should settle last years goaltending issues and help the developing defense core. Olli Jokinen remains possibly the most underrated player in the NHL, an offensive force and all around contributor (though he needs to be better on the road). The Panthers lack scoring depth unless a couple of young players really leap forward and will have to overcome what has become a losing culture. The question will be Vokoun's health, as he has missed substantial time the past two seasons, and whether the potential that hasn't been reached since the lockout finally turns into results.
Montreal: Possibly the best goaltending tandem in the league, if Carey Price plays as well in the NHL as he has everywhere else, will be needed overcome this team's deficiencies. There is a decent defense group, though the depth is questionable, and they lack a true scoring star up front, unless Alexei Kovalev suddenly decides to play with maximum effort every night. Too much rests on things working out as well as possible for the Habs, though the potential of young players stepping up and having in impact could drastically effect where they finish. Watch Plekanec, Latendresse, Higgins, Kostitsyn and others as an indicator.
New Jersey: They still have Martin Brodeur and that gives the Devils a shot at the playoffs always. The top six forwards are solid, with Zach Parise especially demonstrating the potential to dominate, and the leadership group is unquestionable; this team will play to its potential. The defense core sustained another substantial loss with Brian Rafalski's departure and could be without Colin White for some time with his eye injury. As such that group is highly questionable. Brodeur's performance in last year's playoffs left questions about whether he is still able to play 70 plus games a year and the rest of the team may not be strong enough to make the playoffs if he can't.
New York Islanders: A solid goaltender and a great coach will be the backbone of this year's Islanders. They lack difference makers at either forward or defense and if the coach is one of the first positives, the talent of the players is highly dubious. The group is made of solid supporting pieces and they will have to hope that teamwork can trump talent and that DiPietro can jump from being excellent to being dominant.
New York Rangers: The Rangers seem to be a sexy pick to compete for the Stanley Cup after adding Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. They have an enviable top six forwards, proven scorers all, and one of the best goaltenders in the league in Henrik Lundqvist. Their defense core, however, remains serviceable but lacking real difference makers and should something happen to Lundqvist, they are in real trouble in goal. They are hoping that Marc Staal could be ready to make an impact in the NHL and there will be some question about whether Scott Gomez proves to be a real upgrade over Michael Nylander centering Jagr and Straka.
Ottawa: The big three, Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson, have proved consistently dominant for the past two years and the Senators remain deep and strong on defense. With both Gerber and Emery they have an excellent goalie tandem. There will again be questions about the productivity of some of the secondary scorers and expectations may exceed reality for Mike Fisher, Patrick Eaves and Antoine Vermette. They will have the pressure to repeat last years performance on them and will have to focus on the present due to the possibility of change on the horizon.
Philadelphia: They made a concerted effort to improve with the additions of good players in Briere, Timonen and Hartnell. There will be a lot of internal competition among young players and the tandem of Biron and Nittymaki should be steady if unspectacular in goal. The reliance on young players to contribute could undermine their efforts this season and they will face a challenge in creating chemistry with all the new faces. The big question will be whether all the young forwards who stagnated last year can again progress and contribute.
Pittsburgh: It starts and ends with Crosby, the reigning MVP. The Penguins have surrounded him with solid scoring support and a good puck moving defense. The ability of that defense to protect the net remains to be seen and Marc-Andre Fleury has yet to prove that he can provide consistently good goaltending to a team that wants to contend. The question will be whether the offense intimidates enough to take some of the pressure off the defense and goalie.
Tampa Bay: Another team with big offensive stars and questions about the defense group and goaltenders. Dan Boyle is underrated and very effective though he will begin the season injured and will have to catch up once he's healthy. The goaltending has not improved since last year and the depth of the defense core is questionable. They will score, especially with better wingers brought in to help Brad Richards but they will need someone to come out of nowhere to keep the puck out of their net.
Toronto: A strong goaltending tandem, if Toskala can adjust to the pressure of Toronto, and strong offensive contributors on the blueline give the Leafs some hope. Sundin returns with a proven goal scorer on his wing in Jason Blake. The defensemen, especially McCabe and Kubina, will have to do a better job in their own end and the secondary scoring will have to step up when needed. Can the young players and underachievers finally contribute in a meaningful way?
Washington: They have an improved group of forwards to help Alexander Ovechkin so scoring should be less of a problem than last year. Added an experienced powerplay quarterback in Tom Poti to the defense core. They still lack depth or a dominating presence among their defensemen. They will need Olaf Kolzig to continue to steal games for them and he is not getting any younger. They are also counting on big contributions from young players like Nicklas Backstrom and that can be a risky proposition.
WEST
Anaheim: The defending champs retain an excellent goalie tandem and a strong defense core, especially should Niedermayer decide to return at some point during the season. They are some questions about their scoring depth and about the ability of Todd Bertuzzi to produce a bounce back season. Bobby Ryan seems to be getting a chance to make the team. The wildcard for them will be Ryan Getzlaf who showed flashes of dominance in the playoffs last year and led the team in scoring. If he can become an elite player, the Ducks will be very tough to beat.
Calgary: A solid top six forwards, including the ever solid Jarome Iginla and an elite goaltender in Miikka Kiprusoff should allow the Flames to challenge in the very tough Northwest Division. The bottom half of the roster is not as strong and they are taking a chance on Adrian Aucoin returning to the form he showed with the Islanders before the lockout. The introduction of Mike Keenan will be interesting and they will have to be better on the road but as long as they do not rely too much on Kiprusoff they have a chance at the division title.
Chicago: There is some raw talent at both forward and defense on this team but it remains mostly young potential rather than proven production. Khabibulin has not shown the ability to be a game changing goalie since moving to the 'Hawks and their two best players, Martin Havlat and Tuomo Ruutu have a very checkered injury history. If those two stay healthy and all their young players perform ahead of the curve, this team might be okay but that is a big IF.
Colorado: Joe Sakic remains incredibly effective on and off the ice. The Avs have added impact players in Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan giving them solid depth at both forward and defense, including young players with the potential to excel like Paul Stastny and Wojtek Wolski. The goaltending remains somewhat questionable, though Peter Budaj played well enough last year to give them hope that he can make enough saves to allow the rest of the lineup to achieve.
Columbus: Rick Nash still has big time talent and Ken Hitchcock will instill discipline from day one but like with the Islanders, if the coach is a selling feature it does not bode well. Their goaltending is suspect enough that they are keeping young Steve Mason around to start the year. They do not have a number one center and several of their prospects seem to have stalled in their development. Even the best case scenario doesn't seem like the playoffs.
Dallas: A perennial playoff team that could end up on the outside despite the excellent goaltending of Marty Turco. Brendan Morrow and Sergei Zubov remain excellent contributors but the scoring depth seems to be getting worse, not better and they seem to be without potential young contributors. Unless Morrow finds a new offensive gear and Modano a fountain of youth Dallas looks to fall back a bit.
Detroit: They continue to have the best defenseman in the game, Nicklas Lidstorm and have given him additional help with Brian Rafalski coming in. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are a strong scoring duo and they have two veteran goalies. The scoring depth is up in the air, with several young players being counted on the contribute. Dominik Hasek's health and the continued strong play of aging veterans are variables in how good this team can be but their weak division should make them the easiest playoff qualifier.
Edmonton: They have a lot of young talent and a strong goalie tandem. The overhauled defense shouldn't have any trouble moving the puck though they will have to demonstrate that they can protect the net. Whether the talent translates into scoring depth remains to be seen and whether Roloson's play is improved by having a strong backup will also be a question. The potential to be good is there but the devestatingly tough Northwest could limit improvement.
Los Angeles: A good defense core and budding offensive talents like Mike Cammalleri and Alexander Frolov should help the Kings improve. The secondary scoring is suspect and the goaltending situation remains unresolved with nineteen-year-old Jonathon Bernier starting the season opener. The chemistry will take time with a large number of new faces and the ability of a young goalie to hold up behind a middling team remains up in the air.
Minnesota: Great defense and another strong goalie tandem combine with a couple of explosive forwards to make the Wild intriguing. Some of the talent remains unproven and as with many teams, the scoring depth is questionable. If Backstrom proves to be the real deal in goal and Marian Gaborik can stay healthy and play a full season, they could be one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
Nashville: Took a step back with the exodus of talent but the Predators remain well stocked with both top end scorers and up and comers on defense. The jump to bigger roles for many of their players may prove too much and the ability of Chris Mason to be a full time starting goaltender remains to be proven. Should be in the playoff mix if Shea Weber and Alexander Radulov can take a big steps towards being elite players.
Phoenix: Some good defensemen and Shane Doan seem to be the only positives for a team that lacks scoring talent or a starting goaltender. They have a lot of youth and it is possible someone may step up but it seems to be a long year ahead for the Coyotes.
St. Louis: A good defense core and strong top six forwards could help the Blues surprise some people this year. They lack a proven goalie but could have a decent tandem in Legace and Toivonen. Their isn't an elite scorer on the roster so some of their success will rest on how much of an impact Erik Johnson is able to have as a young defenseman.
San Jose: Great scorers up front, a solid defense core and a good goalie could make the Sharks the class of the conference. They lack an elite defender and the backup goalie options remain untested but the best one-two punch at center and a solid supporting cast should make them tough to play on any given night. The question will be the development of young defensemen Carle and Vlasic and how well Nabokov plays without someone pushing for his spot.
Vancouver: The best goalie in the league, Roberto Luongo, gives them a chance to win every night. The Sedins have become reliable scorers and Markus Naslund may have a bounce back year. They have a good defense core, though keeping the unit healthy may be difficult if the past track record is any indication. The question will be if they can score enough to make great goaltending stand up most nights.
That should be a good primer for puck drop tomorrow and we'll see how I did in April.
Thanks for reading.
EAST WEST
1. Ottawa 1. Detroit
2. New York Rangers 2. San Jose
3. Carolina 3. Colorado
4. Buffalo 4. Anaheim
5. Pittsburgh 5. Minnesota
6. Florida 6. Calgary
7. New Jersey 7. Vancouver
8. Toronto 8. St. Louis
9. Philadelphia 9. Nashville
10. Tampa Bay 10. Dallas
11. Washington 11. Edmonton
12. Montreal 12. Los Angeles
13. Atlanta 13. Chicago
14. Boston 14. Columbus
15. New York Islanders 15. Phoenix
EAST
Atlanta: Their offense is powered by the dynamic duo of Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk and they have a decent top four defense group that includes the underrated Niclas Havelid and Garnet Exelby. They lack depth at either position though and are again without a proven offensive center since the departure of Marc Savard. There is some intriguing offensive potential in prospects Brett Sterling and Bryan Little but lingering questions about goaltender Kari Lehtonen compounded by last years playoff debacle leave Bob Hartley vulnerable and seeming to have run out of ideas.
Boston: Solidified the goaltending situation with the addition of Manny Fernandez, leaving Tim Thomas as a strong backup. Marc Savard quietly piled up points last year and Zdeno Chara, though he is starting the season hurt, has the capacity to be a difference maker on defense. Behind those two stars the supporting cast and depth is questionable and doesn't seem to have much potential to surprise. The one potential bright spot for the Bruins is the potential demonstrated by Phil Kessel at points last year. He has the potential to combine with Patrice Bergeron and take some of the pressure off Savard.
Buffalo: Despite free agent losses Buffalo still boasts impressive depth at forward, a top notch goaltender in Ryan Miller and the same solid defense core, though they will start the season without Teppo Numminen. They don't have a real number one stud on defense despite the strong play of both Henrik Tallinder and Brian Campbell. The question will be if Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy can step up and continue to play even better and whether Tim Connolly can finally play an entire season and approach the potential he has always shown.
Carolina: Like Buffalo, the Hurricanes boast probably the best top nine forward group in the league and a returning defense unit that is reliable. They are counting on Cam Ward to have a bounce back year (along with some of their forwards) but they lack offense from the defensemen and are without a strong backup if Cam Ward again falters. The question, since the lineup has changed only a little from two years ago, is which team is the true representation of the roster. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle but they play in a weak division.
Florida: Thomas Vokoun should settle last years goaltending issues and help the developing defense core. Olli Jokinen remains possibly the most underrated player in the NHL, an offensive force and all around contributor (though he needs to be better on the road). The Panthers lack scoring depth unless a couple of young players really leap forward and will have to overcome what has become a losing culture. The question will be Vokoun's health, as he has missed substantial time the past two seasons, and whether the potential that hasn't been reached since the lockout finally turns into results.
Montreal: Possibly the best goaltending tandem in the league, if Carey Price plays as well in the NHL as he has everywhere else, will be needed overcome this team's deficiencies. There is a decent defense group, though the depth is questionable, and they lack a true scoring star up front, unless Alexei Kovalev suddenly decides to play with maximum effort every night. Too much rests on things working out as well as possible for the Habs, though the potential of young players stepping up and having in impact could drastically effect where they finish. Watch Plekanec, Latendresse, Higgins, Kostitsyn and others as an indicator.
New Jersey: They still have Martin Brodeur and that gives the Devils a shot at the playoffs always. The top six forwards are solid, with Zach Parise especially demonstrating the potential to dominate, and the leadership group is unquestionable; this team will play to its potential. The defense core sustained another substantial loss with Brian Rafalski's departure and could be without Colin White for some time with his eye injury. As such that group is highly questionable. Brodeur's performance in last year's playoffs left questions about whether he is still able to play 70 plus games a year and the rest of the team may not be strong enough to make the playoffs if he can't.
New York Islanders: A solid goaltender and a great coach will be the backbone of this year's Islanders. They lack difference makers at either forward or defense and if the coach is one of the first positives, the talent of the players is highly dubious. The group is made of solid supporting pieces and they will have to hope that teamwork can trump talent and that DiPietro can jump from being excellent to being dominant.
New York Rangers: The Rangers seem to be a sexy pick to compete for the Stanley Cup after adding Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. They have an enviable top six forwards, proven scorers all, and one of the best goaltenders in the league in Henrik Lundqvist. Their defense core, however, remains serviceable but lacking real difference makers and should something happen to Lundqvist, they are in real trouble in goal. They are hoping that Marc Staal could be ready to make an impact in the NHL and there will be some question about whether Scott Gomez proves to be a real upgrade over Michael Nylander centering Jagr and Straka.
Ottawa: The big three, Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson, have proved consistently dominant for the past two years and the Senators remain deep and strong on defense. With both Gerber and Emery they have an excellent goalie tandem. There will again be questions about the productivity of some of the secondary scorers and expectations may exceed reality for Mike Fisher, Patrick Eaves and Antoine Vermette. They will have the pressure to repeat last years performance on them and will have to focus on the present due to the possibility of change on the horizon.
Philadelphia: They made a concerted effort to improve with the additions of good players in Briere, Timonen and Hartnell. There will be a lot of internal competition among young players and the tandem of Biron and Nittymaki should be steady if unspectacular in goal. The reliance on young players to contribute could undermine their efforts this season and they will face a challenge in creating chemistry with all the new faces. The big question will be whether all the young forwards who stagnated last year can again progress and contribute.
Pittsburgh: It starts and ends with Crosby, the reigning MVP. The Penguins have surrounded him with solid scoring support and a good puck moving defense. The ability of that defense to protect the net remains to be seen and Marc-Andre Fleury has yet to prove that he can provide consistently good goaltending to a team that wants to contend. The question will be whether the offense intimidates enough to take some of the pressure off the defense and goalie.
Tampa Bay: Another team with big offensive stars and questions about the defense group and goaltenders. Dan Boyle is underrated and very effective though he will begin the season injured and will have to catch up once he's healthy. The goaltending has not improved since last year and the depth of the defense core is questionable. They will score, especially with better wingers brought in to help Brad Richards but they will need someone to come out of nowhere to keep the puck out of their net.
Toronto: A strong goaltending tandem, if Toskala can adjust to the pressure of Toronto, and strong offensive contributors on the blueline give the Leafs some hope. Sundin returns with a proven goal scorer on his wing in Jason Blake. The defensemen, especially McCabe and Kubina, will have to do a better job in their own end and the secondary scoring will have to step up when needed. Can the young players and underachievers finally contribute in a meaningful way?
Washington: They have an improved group of forwards to help Alexander Ovechkin so scoring should be less of a problem than last year. Added an experienced powerplay quarterback in Tom Poti to the defense core. They still lack depth or a dominating presence among their defensemen. They will need Olaf Kolzig to continue to steal games for them and he is not getting any younger. They are also counting on big contributions from young players like Nicklas Backstrom and that can be a risky proposition.
WEST
Anaheim: The defending champs retain an excellent goalie tandem and a strong defense core, especially should Niedermayer decide to return at some point during the season. They are some questions about their scoring depth and about the ability of Todd Bertuzzi to produce a bounce back season. Bobby Ryan seems to be getting a chance to make the team. The wildcard for them will be Ryan Getzlaf who showed flashes of dominance in the playoffs last year and led the team in scoring. If he can become an elite player, the Ducks will be very tough to beat.
Calgary: A solid top six forwards, including the ever solid Jarome Iginla and an elite goaltender in Miikka Kiprusoff should allow the Flames to challenge in the very tough Northwest Division. The bottom half of the roster is not as strong and they are taking a chance on Adrian Aucoin returning to the form he showed with the Islanders before the lockout. The introduction of Mike Keenan will be interesting and they will have to be better on the road but as long as they do not rely too much on Kiprusoff they have a chance at the division title.
Chicago: There is some raw talent at both forward and defense on this team but it remains mostly young potential rather than proven production. Khabibulin has not shown the ability to be a game changing goalie since moving to the 'Hawks and their two best players, Martin Havlat and Tuomo Ruutu have a very checkered injury history. If those two stay healthy and all their young players perform ahead of the curve, this team might be okay but that is a big IF.
Colorado: Joe Sakic remains incredibly effective on and off the ice. The Avs have added impact players in Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan giving them solid depth at both forward and defense, including young players with the potential to excel like Paul Stastny and Wojtek Wolski. The goaltending remains somewhat questionable, though Peter Budaj played well enough last year to give them hope that he can make enough saves to allow the rest of the lineup to achieve.
Columbus: Rick Nash still has big time talent and Ken Hitchcock will instill discipline from day one but like with the Islanders, if the coach is a selling feature it does not bode well. Their goaltending is suspect enough that they are keeping young Steve Mason around to start the year. They do not have a number one center and several of their prospects seem to have stalled in their development. Even the best case scenario doesn't seem like the playoffs.
Dallas: A perennial playoff team that could end up on the outside despite the excellent goaltending of Marty Turco. Brendan Morrow and Sergei Zubov remain excellent contributors but the scoring depth seems to be getting worse, not better and they seem to be without potential young contributors. Unless Morrow finds a new offensive gear and Modano a fountain of youth Dallas looks to fall back a bit.
Detroit: They continue to have the best defenseman in the game, Nicklas Lidstorm and have given him additional help with Brian Rafalski coming in. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are a strong scoring duo and they have two veteran goalies. The scoring depth is up in the air, with several young players being counted on the contribute. Dominik Hasek's health and the continued strong play of aging veterans are variables in how good this team can be but their weak division should make them the easiest playoff qualifier.
Edmonton: They have a lot of young talent and a strong goalie tandem. The overhauled defense shouldn't have any trouble moving the puck though they will have to demonstrate that they can protect the net. Whether the talent translates into scoring depth remains to be seen and whether Roloson's play is improved by having a strong backup will also be a question. The potential to be good is there but the devestatingly tough Northwest could limit improvement.
Los Angeles: A good defense core and budding offensive talents like Mike Cammalleri and Alexander Frolov should help the Kings improve. The secondary scoring is suspect and the goaltending situation remains unresolved with nineteen-year-old Jonathon Bernier starting the season opener. The chemistry will take time with a large number of new faces and the ability of a young goalie to hold up behind a middling team remains up in the air.
Minnesota: Great defense and another strong goalie tandem combine with a couple of explosive forwards to make the Wild intriguing. Some of the talent remains unproven and as with many teams, the scoring depth is questionable. If Backstrom proves to be the real deal in goal and Marian Gaborik can stay healthy and play a full season, they could be one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
Nashville: Took a step back with the exodus of talent but the Predators remain well stocked with both top end scorers and up and comers on defense. The jump to bigger roles for many of their players may prove too much and the ability of Chris Mason to be a full time starting goaltender remains to be proven. Should be in the playoff mix if Shea Weber and Alexander Radulov can take a big steps towards being elite players.
Phoenix: Some good defensemen and Shane Doan seem to be the only positives for a team that lacks scoring talent or a starting goaltender. They have a lot of youth and it is possible someone may step up but it seems to be a long year ahead for the Coyotes.
St. Louis: A good defense core and strong top six forwards could help the Blues surprise some people this year. They lack a proven goalie but could have a decent tandem in Legace and Toivonen. Their isn't an elite scorer on the roster so some of their success will rest on how much of an impact Erik Johnson is able to have as a young defenseman.
San Jose: Great scorers up front, a solid defense core and a good goalie could make the Sharks the class of the conference. They lack an elite defender and the backup goalie options remain untested but the best one-two punch at center and a solid supporting cast should make them tough to play on any given night. The question will be the development of young defensemen Carle and Vlasic and how well Nabokov plays without someone pushing for his spot.
Vancouver: The best goalie in the league, Roberto Luongo, gives them a chance to win every night. The Sedins have become reliable scorers and Markus Naslund may have a bounce back year. They have a good defense core, though keeping the unit healthy may be difficult if the past track record is any indication. The question will be if they can score enough to make great goaltending stand up most nights.
That should be a good primer for puck drop tomorrow and we'll see how I did in April.
Thanks for reading.
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